Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.000702 24.597542 28.984810 34.853358 42.700435 5.315525e+01 68.757791
2025-01-05 16.123433 20.005421 25.204395 33.000738 45.058642 6.439636e+01 101.612904
2025-01-12 13.225941 16.938561 22.180329 30.597228 44.892064 7.103020e+01 132.911319
2025-01-19 11.372348 14.892657 20.054234 28.773933 44.704534 7.721719e+01 170.847950
2025-01-26 11.387098 15.473155 21.859707 33.661053 58.392721 1.217946e+02 422.449020
2025-02-02 10.855883 15.121084 22.085926 35.811523 67.786047 1.678377e+02 1036.424725
2025-02-09 9.794705 13.787930 20.433234 33.909477 66.888264 1.810947e+02 1686.535840
2025-02-16 9.357206 13.407673 20.367992 35.202240 74.884706 2.427531e+02 8732.115210
2025-02-23 8.790743 12.745977 19.691459 35.012363 78.727135 2.960075e+02 543805.116801
2025-03-02 8.294178 12.151694 19.056834 34.769923 82.398158 3.619962e+02 NaN
2025-03-09 7.938209 11.764878 18.763223 35.262965 88.989132 4.823313e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 7.427849 11.063201 17.773696 33.843431 87.897458 5.298735e+02 NaN
2025-03-23 7.058529 10.609503 17.277920 33.721033 92.609242 7.021765e+02 NaN
2025-03-30 6.573772 9.913806 16.225741 31.959653 89.667978 7.492061e+02 NaN
2025-04-06 6.086692 9.183666 15.041611 29.666905 83.496869 7.080107e+02 NaN
2025-04-13 5.689329 8.595479 14.106294 27.924857 79.279623 7.007613e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 5.859416 9.058407 15.397976 32.588893 109.396621 2.901774e+03 NaN
2025-04-27 5.793280 9.071285 15.730924 34.635981 129.661775 1.430114e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 5.471937 8.573157 14.880890 32.825533 123.542949 1.517357e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 5.371191 8.495822 14.971242 34.056301 140.396379 1.181950e+07 NaN
2025-05-18 5.190489 8.250179 14.652546 33.875600 146.851236 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.019781 8.014370 14.336053 33.644841 153.035930 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 4.899327 7.871365 14.224607 34.114087 166.785326 NaN NaN